The aim of this book and a brief description of its con­ tents appear in chapter I. The purpose of this preface is to express our thanks to various people and organizations. Professor Peter Groenewegen of Sydney University and Dr. Michael Krueger of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst have both been extremely helpful in reading the ma­ terial and proffering many valuable suggestions. We also wish to thank an anonymous referee for Springer Verlag, for his critical reading and comments. Naturally, we take full responsibility for whatever errors and shortcomings remain. OUr thanks go to Haifa University, particularly the mem­ bers of the Haifa University Computation Center, for their patience and help in the preparation of the manuscript and production of camera copy. It is a pleasure to acknowledge the assistance of various members of staff of the University of New South Wales, and in particular those at the computer facility within the School of Mathematics. Ian Boyd, Sydney, Austral ia John Blatt, Haifa, Israel. Table of Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION AND BRIEF SUMMARY. . . . . . 1 THE TRADE CYCLE. 7 CHAPTER 11. A BRIEF HISTORICAL SURVEY OF Section A: Why the nineteenth century? ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ 7 Section B: Classification of Cycles. ¿ ¿ ¿¿ 10 11 Section C: The Crash of 1873. ¿¿¿ ¿¿ Section D: Asymmetry between Rise and Fall. ¿¿ 15 Section E: The Speed of the Crash. 17 · . . . .